Left-Wing Media’s Failed Election Predictions: Here’s The List

Left-Wing Media’s Failed Election Predictions: Here’s The List

The 2024 US presidential election caught many off guard. Media commentators and pollsters were wrong, big time. Donald Trump won both the popular vote and the Electoral College, surprising everyone.

This isn’t the first time polls were wrong. They also missed Trump’s 2016 win. This shows a big gap between the media, politicians, and voters.

The Rest Is Politics podcast is a great example. Host Rory Stewart was sure Kamala Harris would win. He even bet £1,000 on it. But, when the results came in, he was wrong.

Key Takeaways

• The majority of media commentators and pollsters incorrectly predicted a close race or a Kamala Harris victory in the 2024 US presidential election.
• Donald Trump’s victory in both the popular vote and the Electoral College caught many left-wing media outlets and pundits by surprise.
• The trend of failed election predictions is not new, as the polls had also failed to accurately forecast Trump’s victory in 2016.
• Prominent political figures, such as Rory Stewart of the Rest Is Politics podcast, were “utterly convinced” of a Kamala Harris victory, only to be proven wrong.
• The disconnect between the political establishment, the mainstream media, and the voting public continues to widen, as evidenced by these failed predictions.

Major Media Outlets’ Incorrect Election Forecasts

The 2024 presidential election coverage by mainstream media was filled with wrong predictions. Many left-leaning pundits’ inaccuracies and partisan punditry failures were seen. These mistakes show the big mainstream media missteps in their election analysis.

The Rest Is Politics Podcast’s Failed Predictions

The “The Rest Is Politics” podcast hosts, like Rory Stewart and Marina Hyde, mostly said Kamala Harris would win. But historian Dominic Sandbrook was the only one who guessed right, saying Trump would win.

Notable Political Commentators’ Missteps

Sun political editor Harry Cole said pundits were too quick to pick Harris without solid reasons. Daily Mail columnist Andrew Neil also made a mistake, thinking it would be a tie.

Mainstream Media’s Polling Errors

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website ran over 80,000 models, leaning slightly towards Harris. But they were wrong. These mistakes by major media and pundits show how wrong they were about the 2024 election.

Media Leftest That Were Wrong About Election

The 2024 presidential election showed a pattern of wrong predictions by left-leaning media. Many left-wing voices were sure of their predictions but got it wrong. This was despite their confidence.

Rory Stewart from The Rest Is Politics podcast thought Harris would win, saying Trump wouldn’t. Cenk Uygur also predicted Trump’s win but is known for supporting Bernie Sanders. Both are seen as left-wing.

Left-leaning media’s mistakes point to their own biases. They might overlook important facts. This makes us wonder about the role of bias in their predictions.

Information about the election was spread far and wide, with much coming from the left. This shows how crucial it is to have accurate reporting. It’s especially important during big elections.

Famous Political Pundits’ Clash Over Predictions

After the 2024 election, a big argument started between two famous political forecasters. Allan Lichtman, known as the “Nostradamus of Elections,” and Cenk Uygur, host of “The Rest Is Politics” podcast, were at odds. They showed how even top prediction models can fail and how hard it is for analysts after wrong forecasts.

Allan Lichtman vs. Cenk Uygur Debate

On Piers Morgan’s “Uncensored,” Lichtman, who had predicted 9 out of 10 presidential elections right, got into a fight with Uygur. Uygur, who had also predicted Donald Trump’s win, called Lichtman’s prediction of Kamala Harris’s victory “stupidly wrong.”

The “Nostradamus” Model’s Failure

Lichtman stood by his “13 Keys to the White House” model, which he trusted for years. But Nate Silver, a well-known analyst, said Lichtman’s model actually showed Trump would win, based on polls, not history.

Post-Election Analysis and Confrontations

The argument between Lichtman and Uygur showed how even top prediction models can fail. It also showed how hard it is for analysts after wrong forecasts and biased punditry.

Statistical Models and Polling Failures

The 2024 U.S. presidential election showed the limits of statistical models and polling. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight ran 80,000 models, slightly favoring Kamala Harris but got it wrong. This mistake was similar to the 2016 election, where they also predicted Hillary Clinton would win.

The “13 Keys to the White House” model, created by Allan Lichtman, also missed the mark. It failed to predict Donald Trump’s victory. These failures highlight the challenges of using statistical models and polling to predict elections. They face complex political landscapes and changing voter behavior.

The polls consistently underestimated Donald Trump’s support. Even in swing states, they missed his performance. The national popular vote margin was close, but the errors in key states were big. These mistakes led to flawed predictions and projections.

“The polling profession faces challenges due to the declining trust in media and institutions and the under-representation of Trump supporters in surveys.”

Experts say the polling industry needs to change. It should use better models and reach more voters, especially Trump supporters. As politics changes, we must carefully look at how we predict elections.

Conclusion

The 2024 US presidential election showed big problems with left-leaning media predictions and polling. Many, including The Rest Is Politics podcast and experts like Allan Lichtman and Nate Silver, got it wrong. This failure makes us wonder about media bias, the trustworthiness of polls, and if old ways of predicting elections still work.

Now, there’s a big debate and self-reflection in the media and forecasting world. The left-leaning media is facing their mistakes, and it seems their bias might have played a part. This has made people doubt the media even more, with about 70% saying they don’t trust mainstream news.

It’s time for the media and polling to really look at themselves and change. They need to keep up with the changing political scene and include different views in their reports. This is key to winning back the public’s trust and providing accurate, unbiased news in the future.

Source Links

• US election result leaves media pundits and pollsters with red faces… again
• Media Watch: Legacy media left red-faced by US election result
• Polling in the age of Trump highlights flawed methods and filtered realities
• Who called the election right and who got it wrong?
• What the 2024 polls got right — and what they got wrong
• Election denialism emerges on the left after Trump’s win
• Left-wing pundit slams historian’s ‘stupidly wrong’ election prediction in wild clash: ‘Who won, brother?’
• Washington Post columnist says media spun for Democrats ‘under threat of blowback’ from left
• Allan Lichtman clashes with left-wing pundit on ‘deluded’ election call
• Left-wing pundit slams historian’s ‘stupidly wrong’ election prediction in wild clash: ‘Who won, brother?’
• Were the 2024 election polls wrong? Pollsters give their verdicts
• Did the US election polls fail?
• What polls got right and wrong about the 2024 presidential election
• Here’s how the media missed the story, from joy to democracy – Roll Call
• Donald Trump won. But the biggest loser was the mainstream media.
• Election fraud claims shifted after Trump’s victory, but baseless theories persisted – Poynter